Our target price on the ADR Ordinary shares of Vale (NYSE ticker: VALE) is US$14.00 based on 5.0x EBITDA on Citi's 2026E assumptions. This multiple is ~15% below global peers since we expect Vale to trade at a discount.

Key risks (both positive and negative) for our target price for Vale include: 1) changes to taxation and regulatory policies; 2) metals price volatility; and 3) currency volatility. If the impact from the above risks turns out to be greater/less than estimated, the shares could fail to reach our target price or could exceed it.