We rate VYGR Buy/High Risk with a $11/shr target price per share. We utilize a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis where we project free cash flows (FCF) explicitly through 2040. We utilize a 0% terminal growth rate to provide some value for potential for future assets generated from Voyager’s proprietary TRACER platform. We then discount cash flows by 15% annually. Within our coverage, we utilize a 15% discount rate for companies that have not yet established clinical proof-of-concept.

We rate VYGR High Risk based on the usual volatility of biotech stocks and uncertainty/risk associated with clinical trials and drug development. Voyager has many of the risks frequently associated with biotech companies. Share performance is closely linked to clinical and regulatory updates, and therefore any updates that fall short of expectations could lead to downside vs. our target. 

Downside risks include: 1) VY7523 demonstrates an unexpected safety signal in Ph1 MAD study in Alzheimer’s patients; and 2) VY7523 does not reduce tau accumulation in early Alzheimer patients. 

If the impact on the company from any of these factors proves to be greater or less than we anticipate, the stock will likely have difficulty achieving our target price or could exceed it.